Why the Polls are All Wrong (And Romney is Really Winning)
It’s easy to look at the RealClear Politics polling averages and be discouraged. It looks bad for Mitt Romney.
But the key word here is “looks.”
What you’re not seeing is something industry experts call “crosstabs”—the methodology by which the poll was conducted and how the numbers correlate with each other.
For example, did you know that, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, Romney closed the gender and favorability gaps?
No?
That’s probably because the mainstream media neglected to tell you about it. It didn’t fit into their narrative.
But there’s more. You know how the electorate breaks down for the voting population: roughly 33% each of Republicans, Democrats, and independents.
Let’s play it safe and assume that Romney and Barack Obama each get 95% of their respective parties’ vote. That’s an automatic estimated 31.5% of the vote for each candidate. Let’s show what that looks like:
Okay, so far, so good. Now, we return to that same Washington Post/ABC News poll we cited earlier and discover that Mitt Romney has a commanding 11% lead with independents. A CNN poll had Romney up by 14% among independents.
I know what you’re thinking. “Wait. I thought Obama won that poll 49%-48%. How can Romney have such a massive lead with independents if Obama still winds up winning?”
You’re right. Let’s assume that the Washington Post/ABC News poll was correct and Romney has an 11-point lead with independents.
Here’s what the new chart with the independent breakdown looks like:
Romney gains 17.82% of the vote and Obama gets 14.19% (Romney beats Obama 54-43 among independents, according to the poll).
Put plainly, even if Barack Obama gets 80% of those “unknown” voters, he would still lose to Mitt Romney 50.32%-49.68%. And those unknowns are more likely to break in half than do an 80-20 split.
Alright, that’s a lot of numbers. Here’s what it means:
The polls are wrong. Plain and simple.
The reason is that they are ALL oversampling Democrats and assuming record-high Democrat turnout and record-low Republican turnout.
That Washington Post/ABC News poll? 33% of respondents were Democrats. 36% were independents. Only 27% of respondents were Republicans.
Sadly, this is how nearly every major polling agency has been conducting themselves throughout this general election. That’s why it appears, at first glance, that Romney is losing.
The problem is that the actual voter turnout levels have never been anywhere near the numbers that the media is using. For example, turnout during the 2010 midterms was 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 30% independent. In 2008—a record year for Democrats—turnout was 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 29% independent.
Here’s the bottom line: Barack Obama is headed for a popular vote thumping, and the media has decided to try to make the race look like a sure win for the president.
Fortunately for America, the media narrative is 100% fallacy.
Posted on September 13, 2012, in Generation 45 and tagged 2012, America, Barack Obama, cnn, Generation 45, mainstream media, media bias, Mitt Romney, politics, polls, realclear politics, Republican. Bookmark the permalink. 39 Comments.
Not buying it. I think the polls are fairly accurate. Pew, Rassmusen and Gallup have been basically dead-on in the last decade. I believe Obama IS ahead.
check again….even the polls you claim that are accurate are saying otherwise. Also, oversampling is a FACT.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Have you seen the recent Rassmussen poll? Romney 48% Obama 45%. You spoke too sson.
Pew and Gallup have been dead on? You need to do some research. Rasmussen has been the most accurate, period. Rasmussen has this as a dead heat in the swing states. National numbers make no difference, the election is a state by state battle for Electoral Votes. That’s where Obama is going to have a problem.
I suspect that Obama will win the popular vote, but frankly the popular vote polls don’t matter much. What matters is the electoral vote, where Romney has a steep hill to climb: http://jmcpherson.wordpress.com/2012/09/13/ten-things-were-told-could-influence-the-presidential-election-but-wont/
Michael, your entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
Polls have always been skewed to get the results they want. Michael… you need to wake up. Polls have to be taken with a grain of salt or should we say a ‘sack’ of salt. Look at whose polling, all of them are left leaning pollsters with a preference. Get your head out of the mud.
Polls were off in the mid terms, and most by allot. 2008 was fairly accurate, because McCain was so incompetent it was easy to predict, and even then the margin of victory wasnt that large. I have read several account s from pollsters this year wher they have been exposed to polling a higher number of Dems, in large Dem controlled areas. so not buying Obama is ahead
Dream on, Michael. Dream on . . .
The polls are just what a thousand people were thinking on a certain day. All the Media is trying to do is discourage us from voting “knowing” there is “no” chance for romney to win.
Keep an eye on the University of Colorado model that predicts a Romney win. It is 9 for 9 in last 9 elections: http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/aug/22/university-colorado-predicts-romney-win-november/
Does anyone remember the polls leading up to Gov. Walker’s recall? Yeah, that’s why I never buy stock in what the polls say.
Obama is done…The silent majority will turn out in record numbers.. They have yet to poll me or anyone I know. I don’t trust any poll conducted by any media outlet.
I think we should keep it with Obama ahead. That way most will think he has it in the bag and will not vote..
Michael, you can believe whatever you want but last I checked Mitt was winning in the Rasmussen and Gallup by 3%, not sure about the Pew though
Freedom of the Press is a right guaranteed by our Constitution. The abuse of that right is a betrayal of the trust given to the media within our country. There are consequences for everything. The reasoning behind freedom of the press from our Founding Fathers was to protect the truth. It was not afforded to promote a political position.
Cole…You got it! Wouldn’t it be great if their scheming backfired? Instead of trying to make it look like Obama has already won and trying to scare folks that will vote Romney into staying home b/c it’s hopeless, the tides could turn where folks think Obama is so far ahead, they don’t bother to go out and vote for him! THAT would be sweet revenge! Gotta love it!
Sir,
I was one of those who was contacted for the Virginia Poll yesterday. I can tell you for a fact that the poll was set up to make Romney look bad. You had to be very careful and listen not only to the question but how to answer because it was totally different each time. Had I not took time to listen to the answers each time it would have looked like I favored Obama and his polices.
Also, why does Fox News poll break for Obama? They can hardly be said to be biased in his favor.
I hope that you are right! It is scary to think that Obama could win this election. I pray the polls are wrong and Obama is no longer the Commander in Chief, with all that is going on in other parts of the world to our embassy’s it is scary to have Obama leading our nation. We need a pro-active leader and not one who chooses to continue campaigning when there is American Blood Shed! He is a bad example for the greatness instilled in one of the highest offices held in our country!
Republicans are under-represented in polls because they are too busy working to answer the phone.
Love the accuracy of this Sam!
Amazing how the current race MIRRORS the Carter vs. Reagan race. Even the poll numbers are close to identical. I predict a similar outcome. Esp. with the latest foreign policy failures. During the DNC convention the D’s were all gushing how the Democrats were now the party of national security. Haven’t heard a peep from that camp in the last 4 days.
Polls don’t count all the dead people that will magically vote for Obama
As a devout Republican who believes Obama to be the worst president in modern history (and maybe all of history), I’d love for this analysis to be right. But I don’t think it is. The polls don’t lie. While more than half the country is clearly ready to ditch Obama, Romney just hasn’t seized the moment.
Polls do lie. If you call 1000 people and %70 are Democrat you will get one thing. If you call 1000 people and 70% are repulbican you get a whole different outcome.
Remember Governor Walker? He won by 7% That isn’t what the poles said.
It would be a photo finish in a gubernatorial recall race between Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and nearly any Democratic challenger, according to a poll released this week.
While the Public Policy Polling survey of 900 Wisconsin registered voters over the phone placed former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold ahead of Walker by 7 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup – though he has said he is not interested in running – Walker either wins or loses by roughly 3 percentage points against other challengers.
Polls do and have lied. You only need to go back as far as the Wisconsin recall election to see that.
At this point we want Obama to believe he’s ahead. If he believes he’s about to lose, he will likely declare a state of National Emergency on some pretense, likely the violence now occurring, and enact the EO’s to take control of all communications and manufacturing. The next step would be to cancel the election.
The silent majority will come through for Romney. Nobody predicted the huge turnout of conservatives in support of Chick-Fil-A. They will be equally shocked at the size of the Romney victory.
The University of Colorado has correctly predicted the last eight Presidential elections……..they have predicted that Romney will win this Presidential election with 321 electoral votes! We will see. Also Real Clear politics which averages the polls had Romney ahead by 3% pts. which indicates a Romney lead….or dead heat.
None of this matters. Obama will steal this election if needed, and the media will gladly cover for him. It’s heads he wins, tails we lose.
The turnout to support Chik-Fil-A is the only poll I needed to see looking forward to the November presidential election. The people voted with their feet that day. Bye, bye, Barack.
The Polls also showed Carter ahead of Reagan almost up to the election, But Reagan won by a landslide! People who are pissed off and want a change, are more likely to vote, than the Idiots who sit back and think everything is fine the way it is.
Here’s an interesting result of polling gone wrong. In the recent Alberta provincial election here in Canada the Wildrose Party was being given a commanding lead and headed for a majority gov’t in the provincial legislature. However on election day the governing Conservatives returned to power with a majority and the Wildrose took only 20/80 seats and the Liberals & NDP took a handful. I remember watching the returns and everybody was completely surprised. Apparently the polling, much of it done via social media, was completely wrong. So yes polling gives a broad picture but not a very convincing one and yes the results depend on who is being asked and what is the question.
This election is much different than Carter/Reagan. For one thing, Romney is no Reagan. For another, Obama had no primary challenger (Carter had two, Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown).
Those of you citing Real Clear Politics and Rasmussen might want to check out their electoral maps. If Rasmussen (considered the most politically conservative of the pollsters) is correct,only seven toss-up states remain–Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Missouri and Colorado–and if Obama claims ONLY Florida, OR just Ohio and any ONE of the other six, or ANY three of the seven, he wins the election.
Though reported last month, the Colorado model was based on June data and awarded states to Romney that he has already essentially conceded by pulling his ads; the researchers plan to update it this month (probably in part so they can say they were “right” again). There’s still time for Romney to win–but it’s not likely.
If the polls are right and Obama is winning it is just more of a reason to go vote for Romney! I am in Ohio and I am voting for Romney! My wife is too!
I’m curious where you get the 33/33/33 division between Rep/Dem/Ind. I’ve never seen a poll where it’s that.
While I would not consider one organization being absolutely correct, Gallup in January showed it as 40/31/27 for Ind/Dem/Rep.
Just the fact that it’s close scares me. It’s hard to believe that there are people that we know and see every day that lack sense of patriotism what so ever and cannot see how dangerous this man is to our country. May God help us.
Paul Chester – They lack discernment, wisdom and commonsense. The election will determine if the deception is sufficient to throw over the Republic – if enough darkness has been generated to block the Light. Take heart. We already know how it turns out.