Why the Polls are All Wrong (And Romney is Really Winning)
It’s easy to look at the RealClear Politics polling averages and be discouraged. It looks bad for Mitt Romney.
But the key word here is “looks.”
What you’re not seeing is something industry experts call “crosstabs”—the methodology by which the poll was conducted and how the numbers correlate with each other.
For example, did you know that, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, Romney closed the gender and favorability gaps?
That’s probably because the mainstream media neglected to tell you about it. It didn’t fit into their narrative.
But there’s more. You know how the electorate breaks down for the voting population: roughly 33% each of Republicans, Democrats, and independents.
Let’s play it safe and assume that Romney and Barack Obama each get 95% of their respective parties’ vote. That’s an automatic estimated 31.5% of the vote for each candidate. Let’s show what that looks like:
Okay, so far, so good. Now, we return to that same Washington Post/ABC News poll we cited earlier and discover that Mitt Romney has a commanding 11% lead with independents. A CNN poll had Romney up by 14% among independents.
I know what you’re thinking. “Wait. I thought Obama won that poll 49%-48%. How can Romney have such a massive lead with independents if Obama still winds up winning?”
You’re right. Let’s assume that the Washington Post/ABC News poll was correct and Romney has an 11-point lead with independents.
Here’s what the new chart with the independent breakdown looks like:
Romney gains 17.82% of the vote and Obama gets 14.19% (Romney beats Obama 54-43 among independents, according to the poll).
Put plainly, even if Barack Obama gets 80% of those “unknown” voters, he would still lose to Mitt Romney 50.32%-49.68%. And those unknowns are more likely to break in half than do an 80-20 split.
Alright, that’s a lot of numbers. Here’s what it means:
The polls are wrong. Plain and simple.
The reason is that they are ALL oversampling Democrats and assuming record-high Democrat turnout and record-low Republican turnout.
That Washington Post/ABC News poll? 33% of respondents were Democrats. 36% were independents. Only 27% of respondents were Republicans.
Sadly, this is how nearly every major polling agency has been conducting themselves throughout this general election. That’s why it appears, at first glance, that Romney is losing.
The problem is that the actual voter turnout levels have never been anywhere near the numbers that the media is using. For example, turnout during the 2010 midterms was 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 30% independent. In 2008—a record year for Democrats—turnout was 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 29% independent.
Here’s the bottom line: Barack Obama is headed for a popular vote thumping, and the media has decided to try to make the race look like a sure win for the president.
Fortunately for America, the media narrative is 100% fallacy.
Posted on September 13, 2012, in Generation 45 and tagged 2012, America, Barack Obama, cnn, Generation 45, mainstream media, media bias, Mitt Romney, politics, polls, realclear politics, Republican. Bookmark the permalink. 39 Comments.